Podcasts and reports
In addition to the regular Commentary we will be recording podcasts, short video and audio commentaries on current economic issues. We will also provide separate commentary reports and papers.
The Fraser Commentary for November 2012
The growth of the Scottish economy continues to be weak, the labour market especially. GDP in constant prices fell by 0.4% in Scotland during the second quarter, the same loss of output as in the UK. Both the Scottish and UK economies have contracted for the three quarters up to the second quarter. But data for the third quarter show the UK economy to have expanded by 1%. We consider this to be an 'Olympics bounce' which is unlikely to affect Scotland to the same extent. Positive Scottish retail sales figures for the third quarter need
to be set against the reports of several business surveys which depict growth as largely stagnating with household spending depressed and business confidence weak.
The Fraser Commentary for February 2012
The basic picture continues to be one of weak recovery with a further weakening apparent towards the end of 2011, as the UK economy contracted by 0.2%. Scottish GDP is still -3.3%% below the pre-recession peak nearly four years ago, while the figure for UK GVA is -3.6%. However, while the depth of the recession was greater in the UK, at -7.2%, than in Scotland, -5.9%, the recovery of UK GDP has been slightly faster than in Scotland.
The Fraser Commentary for November 2011
In the June Commentary we stressed that the Scottish economy was threatened with stagnation as the rate of recovery slows. This threat is even more real today than it was then. Growth has continued to weaken in the global economy and is weaker in the UK and Scottish economies too.
The Fraser Commentary for June 2011
The recovery continues to be weak in both Scotland and the UK. Our view of the performance of the economy has been distorted by the effects of the bad weather on production in December last year.
The Fraser Commentary for March 2011
The Scottish economy may be continuing to recover from recession but the rate of recovery appears to be slowing even when allowance is made for the difficult weather this winter.
The Fraser Commentary for November 2010
The latest Economic commentary from the Fraser of Allander Institute points to Scotland's economy continuing to recover at a slower rate than the UK as a whole but at 0.8% over the 3rd quarter growth exceeded expectations.
The Fraser Commentary for June 2010
The impact of the emergency Budget introduced by the new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government.
The Fraser Commentary for February 2010
Scotland's economy should return to positive growth in 2010
The Fraser Commentary for June 2009
We outline the key issues in the current Economic Commentary.
The Fraser Commentary for February 2009
Professor Brian Ashcroft outlines the key issues in the current Economic Commentary.
The Fraser Commentary for June 2008
Professor Brian Ashcroft outlines the key issues in the current Economic Commentary.
