Postgraduate research opportunities Missing but not Forgotten: Modelling New Developments in the Global Economy Using Data with Missing Values
ApplyKey facts
- Opens: Tuesday 19 March 2024
- Deadline: Friday 19 April 2024
- Number of places: 1
- Duration: 42 months
- Funding: Home fee, Stipend
Overview
To respond swiftly to sudden shifts in global economic conditions, policymakers require timely forecasts informed by different types of data. This research will develop new econometric methods to incorporate short data with missing values (for example, capturing developing and emerging economies or global developments) into a multi-country forecasting model. This new model will be used to evaluate the relative importance of global, regional and domestic information in improving forecasts.Eligibility
This application programme is for applicants looking to apply for ESRC studentship funding to undertake a supervisor-led pre-designed PhD research project, starting in the academic year 2024/25 (October 2024). To ensure you have the best chance of success please review the relevant studentship advert(s) in advance of submitting an application.
Additional eligibility criteria:
- We welcome both home and international applicants
- Both study modes (part-time and full-time) are available.
- We require either: An excellent (2:1 or above) undergraduate degree (with Honours) in Economics (or related and quantitative field) if applying for 1+3.5 funding (i.e. MSc and PhD funding). In this case you will undertake an MSc providing ESRC accredited doctoral training through the Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics (SGPE). While the University of Strathclyde is a full member and contributes to the teaching of the MSc programme, it will take place at the University of Edinburgh; the subsequent 3.5-year PhD will take place at the University of Strathclyde.
- Or: An excellent Master’s degree (or equivalent) in Economics if applying for +3.5 funding (i.e. PhD funding only). This MSc has to be at a recognised, ESRC-accredited doctoral training MSc – i.e. programmes equivalent to the Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics (SGPE).
- Candidates who are not native English speakers will be required to provide evidence of their English skills (such as by IELTS or similar tests that are approved by UKVI, or a degree completed in an English-speaking country).
- Additionally, the following criteria are desirable given the focus of the PhD project:
- Knowledge of time series econometrics and/or Bayesian econometrics is desirable but we will also support the successful candidate in developing their knowledge.
- Experience in quantitative analysis and in particular programming (especially in Matlab) is desirable. We will also provide support to the successful candidate in developing their skills.
For more details on our eligibility criteria, we encourage applicants to review this page.
Project Details
The supervisory team (Dr Sharada Davidson, Dr Ping Wu and Professor Gary Koop) are looking for a high-quality student for a fully-funded SGSSS-ESRC PhD-studentship in Economics. The programme will commence in October 2024. This PhD project is inspired by substantial changes in the global economy evident over the past decades. The 1990s and 2000s witnessed an acceleration in trade and financial integration between countries. Now globalisation is slowing, giving way to geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation. Developing and emerging economies (DEEs) play an increasingly important role. To respond swiftly to sudden shifts in these global economic conditions, policymakers in central banks and international institutions require timely forecasts informed by different types of data. However, time series data on global indicators, DEEs or from non-traditional sources are “short”. Short data occurs when some of our time series data has a later start date (i.e. data is missing at the beginning of the sample) or suffers from a release delay (i.e. data is missing at the end of the sample). Short data presents a problem in applying the existing forecasting toolkit available to incorporate data on newly developed global indicators or DEEs.
This PhD research will seek to enhance and extend existing methods to address this practical challenge for those working with DEE data. Specifically, this quantitative research will develop new Bayesian econometric methods which can be used to incorporate short data with missing values into a multi-country forecasting model. This new model will then be used to evaluate the relative importance of global, regional and domestic information in improving forecasts. This will enable an analysis of cross-country linkages and an investigation of which countries are most vulnerable to crises and changes in different global conditions (for example, a slowdown in China’s economy or changes in US monetary policy).
Where the candidate does not already have appropriate MSc training they will first complete the Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics (SGPE) MSc in Economics as part of 1+3.5 funding. As part of the PhD, the successful candidate will also have the opportunity to undertake a placement to develop transferable skills and sector knowledge that will assist career development.
Further information
The closing date for applications is on 19th April 2024 at 5 pm. Find further details and apply.
Funding details
Fully-funded scholarship for 42 years covers all university tuition fees and an annual tax-free stipend.
Apply
Number of places: 1
There will be a shortlisting and interview process.
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