
Dr John Douglas
Senior Lecturer
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Area of Expertise
- Engineering seismology
- Earthquake ground motion prediction (e.g. Douglas and Edwards, 2016)
- Assessing and modifying ground-motion models (e.g. Brooks et al., 2020)
- Seismic hazard assessment, especially site-specific studies (e.g. Douglas et al., 2014)
- Local site effects, especially for rock sites (e.g. Douglas et al., 2009)
- High-frequency attenuation of ground motions (e.g. Douglas et al., 2010)
- Estimating site response (e.g. Volpini and Douglas, 2019)
- Site classification using proxies (e.g. Lemoine et al., 2012)
- Using macroseismic intensities (e.g. Rey et al., 2018)
- Ground motions from induced seismicity (e.g. Douglas et al., 2013)
- Prediction of ground-motion fields (e.g. Gehl et al., 2017)
- Using ground-motion simulations (e.g. Douglas and Aochi, 2016)
- Assessing spatial correlation of earthquake ground motions (e.g. Schiappapietra and Douglas, 2020)
- Time-dependent seismic hazard assessment (e.g. Azarbakht et al, 2022)
- Operational Earthquake Forecasting (e.g. Douglas and Azarbakht, 2020)
- Strong-motion databases (e.g. Akkar et al., 2014)
- Processing of strong-motion records (e.g. Douglas and Boore, 2011)
- Earthquake engineering
- Fragility curves (e.g. Ulrich et al., 2014)
- Risk-targeted seismic design (e.g. Douglas and Gkimprixis, 2018)
- Minimum-cost design and cost-benefit analyses (e.g. Gkimprixis et al., 2020)
- Hindcasting earthquake damage (retro-scenarios) (e.g. Douglas et al., 2015)
- Uncertainties in earthquake risk assessments (e.g. Rohmer et al., 2014)
- Traffic light systems for induced seismicity (e.g. Douglas and Aochi, 2014)
- Using earthquake early warning (e.g. Le Guenan et al., 2016)
- Alternative structural models (e.g. Ambraseys and Douglas, 2003)
- Earthquake insurance (e.g. Gkimprixis et al., 2021)
- Decision-making using multiple criteria (e.g. Azarbakht et al., 2021)
- Multi-hazard risk assessments (e.g. Douglas, 2007)
- Nomograms (e.g. Douglas and Danciu, 2019)
- Repeat photography (rephoto) (e.g. currently applying method for risk communication in the project NET: New technologies and participatory approaches for disaster resilience)
Prize And Awards
Qualifications
Fellow of the Higher Education Academy
Member of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
Associate Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers
Member of the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics
Member of the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team
Member of the European Association of Earthquake Engineering
Publications
Research Interests
Academic mission statement: My research group develops statistical and numerical models to improve the assessment of seismic hazard and risk, and thereby reducing losses due to future earthquakes worldwide.
To evaluate the potential impact of a natural peril (e.g., an earthquake) it is necessary to consider the following three aspects:
- hazard (e.g., how the ground shakes during an earthquake);
- vulnerability (e.g., how a building responds to this shaking); and
- exposure (e.g., how many of these buildings are in the zone of interest).
The combination of these three factors provides an estimate of the risk, which expresses the chance that a certain undesirable event (e.g., building collapse) may occur. It is important to distinguish between the hazard, which often cannot be altered, and the risk, which can be reduced (mitigated) by lowering the vulnerability and exposure of the building stock as well as increasing the resilience of the community. It is important that the hazard be neither over- nor under-estimated. Examples of the latter are dramatically displayed by damage to buildings that were constructed in accordance with the expected ground motion in the region. An over-estimated hazard leads to higher construction costs for seismic resistance, which consumes resources that could be better spent tackling other problems.
Many of my contributions have led to improved ground-motion models. During my PhD I authored a report summarizing all models published worldwide since the 1960s. In the two decades since, I have updated this report many times and it is used globally in many research (e.g., Global Earthquake Model), governmental (e.g., national seismic hazard maps) and commercial (e.g., nuclear projects) studies. This compendium was the basis of my 2003 and 2016 Earth-Science Reviews articles that provide comprehensive and critical reviews of empirical models. In 2005 I co-authored a pair of articles that provided state-of-the-art horizontal and vertical models for Europe and the Middle East. In 2014 I led an initiative to develop an updated set of models for Europe and the Middle East using a variety of techniques. In 2013 I led the development of the first model for the prediction of ground motions from geothermally-induced earthquakes, which is used regularly in hazard assessments for induced seismicity. Recently I pioneered the use of backbone ground-motion models for hazard mapping in Europe. Within the TURNkey project I led various research studies on Operational Earthquake Forecasting, which are summarised in this LinkedIn article.
About a decade ago I led the first implementation in Europe of the risk-targeting approach for the development of seismic building codes. This work has inspired similar work in many countries, and led to the first set of consistent fragility functions for risk-targeting ever published. Through a PhD project, we recently put this work on a firmer theoretical basis and extended it towards design using life-cycle costs and for insurance in articles in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Again, this is inspiring efforts by many other researchers.
I am regularly invited as a ground-motion expert in flagship seismic hazard assessments, such as for Hinkley Point C, the first UK nuclear power plant to successfully pass through the regulatory approval process since the 1990s, and to sit on international peer review panels of such assessments, e.g. for the Groningen gas field (The Netherlands), and chairing the 12-member international scientific committee overseeing the research undertaken in the SIGMA-2 project for EDF (France). These roles have inspired much of my research over the past decade as well as leading directly to some landmark publications, e.g. 2016 International Atomic Energy Agency guidelines and two articles on the Hinkley Point C seismic hazard assessment.
Professional Activities
Projects
Contact
Dr
John
Douglas
Senior Lecturer
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Email: john.douglas@strath.ac.uk
Tel: 548 4569