Expert judgement network: Bridging the gap between scientific uncertainty and evidence-based decision making
Most governments and the new European Union Chief Scientist support the concept of evidence-based decision-making in policy. However, there's a substantial gap between the science models relevant for cutting-edge research and those required for policy analysis.
Science-based models often involve substantial uncertainty which require defensible and timely characterisation. The shortage and cost of timely empirical data inevitably requires scientific expert judgement. How this is best obtained is critical to a decision process, as differences in the robustness of elicitation methods can be substantial.
Good examples, pioneered in Europe, do exist in specific areas of science, but generalising and spreading this good practice into other disciplines is hard. Performed rigorously, expert elicitation and mapping of stakeholders’ views are powerful means for obtaining rational and scientifically founded assessments of uncertainty.
ISCH COST Action IS1304 will utilise the COST framework to stimulate the emergence and spread of high quality evidence-based decision support methods. This will ensure that scientists can have a stronger influence on policy questions by interacting with policy makers and Chief Scientist offices. Staff members' involved include:
- Tim Bedford - chair of the action
- John Quigley - lead in work group 1
- Kevin Wilson - programme co-ordinator
- Roger Cook
- Lesley Walls
- Matthew Revie
- Alec Morton
For further information please visit the Experts in Uncertainty website.
- Reaction to 'An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results' Ganguly, T., Wilson, K., Quigley, J., Cooke, R., Babuscia, A. & Cheung, K-M. 2014 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
- Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current
- Estimating expected value of information using Bayesian belief networks: a case study in fish consumption advisory
- Expert judgement assessment: quantifying uncertainty on thin ice
- Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely