Professor Edoardo Patelli

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Personal statement

In order to achieve a step-change in the way the design, development, and maintains complex structures and systems it is necessary to effectively characterize and quantify the unavoidable uncertainties. This allows to take riks-informed decisions, design robust and resilient systems able to cope with the current challenges. 

The quantification of uncertainty and the design of efficient and resilient systems capable of recovering from catastrophe is a requirement of numerous industries. Often researchers and practitioners in different disciplines use different languages to describe essentially similar techniques. There is a need for effective strategies and technologies that respond to the current and future needs of our society, and build resilience across a wide range of industrial sectors. 

By adopting virtual engineering frameworks such as digital twinning, and exploiting the capability of efficient and reliable computational strategies supported by machine learning and artificial intelligence we can now understand and predict the behavior of complex real-world problems, effectively design maintain, and managing them, and reducing the overall risks involved.

I am working on computational science and engineering for more than 20 years. I started developing stochastic models for the assessment of the disposal of radioactive waste. Then, I have developed efficient simulation techniques for high fidelity analysis and reliability analysis of computationally expensive models and complex systems with applications in different sectors including Civil, Nuclear, and Aerospace. I have a deep understanding and knowledge of the current challenges (and opportunities) in computation and simulation techniques and the need for verified and reliable tools.

I am working in a truly multidisciplinary environment in collaboration with members from all the university faculties and strong link with world-leading scholars across the world. I am the Chair of the Technical Committee on Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) and Chair of the Technical Committee for the 2019 European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) conference. I am working actively with UK industry including Wood, Airbus, ARUP, EdF UK, AWE,  CCFE and National Nuclear Laboratory. 

 In order to translate the recent development to practicians and industry, we are continuously developing a suite of computational tools:  \href{}{COSSAN software},


Has expertise in:

    • Uncertainty quantification
    • Bayesian and Credal Networks
    • Resilience assessment of complex infrastructures
    • Nuclear safety
    • Probabilistic risk assessment
    • Human reliability 


Sampling methods for solving Bayesian model updating problems : A tutorial
Lye Adolphus, Cicirello Alice, Patelli Edoardo
Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing Vol 159 (2021)
Dynamic and probabilistic multi-class prediction of tunnel squeezing intensity
Chen Yu, Li Tianbin, Zeng Peng, Ma Junjie, Patelli Edoardo, Edwards Ben
Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering Vol 53, pp. 3521-3542 (2020)
An efficient approach for computing analytical non-parametric fragility curves
Altieri Domenico, Patelli Edoardo
Structural Safety Vol 85 (2020)
Optimal regulation of the construction of reliable sea defenses
Nieto-Cerezo Oscar, Wenzelburger Jan, Patelli Edoardo, Beer Michael
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering Vol 6 (2020)
A post-contingency power flow emulator for generalized probabilistic risks assessment of power grids
Rocchetta Roberto, Patelli Edoardo
Reliability Engineering and System Safety Vol 197 (2020)
Transient safety assessment and risk mitigation of a hydroelectric generation system
Li Huanhuan, Xu Beibei, Arzaghi Ehsan, Abbassi Rouzbeh, Chen Diyi, Aggidis George A, Zhang Jingjing, Patelli Edoardo
Energy Vol 196 (2020)

More publications


I am currently teaching:

  • Probability and statistics
  • Structural reliability 
  • Monte Carlo methods
  • Bayesian approaches 
  • FMEA, Fault Tree, Event Tree 

Research interests

My primary research interests focus on the general area of risk analysis, uncertainty modelling and quantification, sensitivity analysis, nuclear safety, reliability and availability of complex systems. In particular,  the focus is on the development of verified and efficient stochastic computational methods able to model different representation of the uncertainty and providing trustful reliability analysis and risk assessment.
The numerical implementations have resulted in the development of an open-source general-purpose software package for uncertainty quantification and stochastic analysis.

Professional activities

International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management
European Safety and Reliability Conference
International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering (Journal)
Peer reviewer
International Probabilistic Workshop
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part A - Civil Engineering (Journal)
Peer reviewer

More professional activities


Urban and rural UAS-enabled health-care over Scotland CAELUS (ex URANOS)
Fossati, Marco (Principal Investigator) Akartunali, Kerem (Co-investigator) Burt, Graeme (Co-investigator) Cashmore, Michael (Co-investigator) Patelli, Edoardo (Co-investigator) Tapinos, Efstathios (Co-investigator) Vasile, Massimiliano (Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2020 - 31-Jan-2022
Doctoral Training Partnership 2020-2021 University of Strathclyde | Johnson, Karl
Patelli, Edoardo (Principal Investigator) Pytharouli, Stella (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator) White, Chris (Co-investigator) Johnson, Karl (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2020 - 01-Jan-2024
Evaluating the benefit of structural health monitoring for improving bridge resilience against scour - National Centre for Resilience (NCR)
Tubaldi, Enrico (Principal Investigator) Ferguson, Neil (Co-investigator) Patelli, Edoardo (Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2020 - 31-Jan-2021
Development of a decision support system for the management of infrastructure
Tubaldi, Enrico (Principal Investigator) Patelli, Edoardo (Co-investigator) Quigley, John (Co-investigator)
06-Jan-2020 - 05-Jan-2022
A resilience modelling framework for improved nuclear safety (NuRes) (Edoardo Patelli)
Patelli, Edoardo (Principal Investigator)
01-Jan-2019 - 30-Jan-2021
Doctoral Training Partnership 2018-19 University of Strathclyde | MacDonald , Euan
Tubaldi, Enrico (Principal Investigator) Patelli, Edoardo (Co-investigator) White, Chris (Co-investigator) MacDonald, Euan (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2019 - 01-Jan-2022

More projects


Civil and Environmental Engineering
James Weir Building

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