BLOG | Jamie Speirs, Hannah Corbett, Karen Turner | Dec 2023
The most recent iteration of the UNFCCC Conference of Parties, COP 28, has just come to a close, and response and reaction is still filtering through. A number of key points stand out, raising both positive and negative reaction in the media. Here are some of our thoughts on what is important in the final agreement, and what remains to be done in COP29.
At last we have wording on transitioning away from fossil fuels
The issue possibly receiving the most column inches in the last few days is the final agreement wording on the “transition away” from fossil fuels. This wording has been both “hailed as historic” and referred to as a “tragedy for the planet”. This is the first time that fossil fuel transition has received explicit wording in the history of these negotiations. However, many had hoped for the stronger wording of a full “phase-out”. Disagreement led to a compromise deal, resulting in the ‘transition away’ wording that the final agreement now contains. Regardless of the rhetoric, one thing is clear, as restated by the UN Secretary-General António Gutteres, “To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase-out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase-out is inevitable whether they like it or not.” The remaining question is how this transition will be orchestrated, and what measures, targets or actions will be used. More detail is needed here, and much more work to be done between now and next year’s COP29.
Some explicit targets set for climate action
Explicit targets were set for a number of areas, representing a step forward from previous agreements. Non-CO2 emissions received attention, with 50 oil companies agreeing to reduce methane emissions to zero by 2030. 118 countries signed a pledge promising to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. This renewables target was coupled with an energy efficiency target. The latter is crucial, involving the doubling annual efficiency improvement globally from 2% to 4% per year, which our own research has demonstrated time and time again will be good for economies as well as energy systems and the climate.
Nonetheless, these are all challenging targets, which are necessary but not sufficient to reach our climate goals. What has been pledged is an important step forward but with greater ambition and detailed pathway planning urgently needed.
Important announcements on climate finance, and on loss and damage
A number of announcements were made around climate finance, including the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund, and Special Climate Change Fund. A Global Climate Finance Framework was also agreed between 13 countries, and there was recognition of the need for improvement of the climate finance architecture. Details of the delivery of the new framework are expected soon, again highlighting the need for detail to flesh out the high-level announcement from COP28.
One of the first outcomes of the negotiations was the Loss and Damage fund. This initiative, aimed at supporting the countries who are most vulnerable to climate-related disasters, was initially negotiated in last year’s COP27. Now, the fund has pledges of $729 million. This is a significant step forward, though some have criticised the level of commitment relative to some estimates of loss and damage in developing countries, which are orders of magnitude greater than current Loss and Damage fund pledges.
The importance of ensuring a just transition
Finally, the need for a just transition received attention. Of the four pillars set out by the COP28 presidency, pillar 1 (fast-tracking a just, orderly, and equitable energy transition) pillar 3 (focusing on people, lives and livelihoods) and pillar 4 (underpinning everything with full inclusivity) all acknowledge aspects of just transition. Initiatives such as the Loss and Damage fund, COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate Relief, Recovery and Peace, COP28 Gender-Responsive Just Transitions and Climate Action Partnership and the Coal Transition Accelerator all make explicit reference to aspects of just transition, demonstrating a renewed focus in this area.
Overall COP28 is regarded by some as one of the most significant steps forward in climate negotiations since COP21 in Paris. It has also been viewed as significantly better than some feared, despite compromises late in negotiations that have received much of the attention. However, as has been common in the aftermath of previous negotiations, there is significant need for detail to fill in behind the high-level rhetoric. Decisive action will only be possible with that detail in place, and a clear direction that all parties can use to achieve measurable and sufficient progress. That leaves plenty of work to do in the next year, at COP29, and within and across all nations to ensure meaningful outcomes of future COP conferences.