Dr Ian Belton

Lecturer

Management Science

Contact

Personal statement

My research focuses on the psychology of human decision-making. In particular, I examine decisions made under conditions of risk and uncertainty in organisational/institutional contexts including the legal, defence and security sectors. I also have an interest in applying and improving techniques for strategic foresight such as the Delphi method and scenario planning, as well as the interface between such soft OR methods and quantitative risk modelling.

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Publications

Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation
Dhami Mandeep K, Belton Ian K, De Werd Peter, Hadzhieva Velichka, Wicke Lars
Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications Vol 9 (2024)
https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-024-00560-y
The role of character-based personal mitigation in sentencing judgments
Belton Ian K, Dhami Mandeep K
Journal of Empirical Legal Studies Vol 21, pp. 208-239 (2024)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12376
The Nunavut-Nunavik Search and Rescue project (NSAR) : enhancing SAR operations in Arctic Canada
Belton Ian, Quigley John
Arctic Science Summit Week (2024)
Virtuous opinion change in structured groups
Bolger Fergus, Rowe Gene, Hamlin Iain, Belton Ian, Crawford Megan, Sissons Aileen, Taylor Browne Lūka Courtney, Vasilichi Alexandrina, Wright George
Judgment and Decision Making Vol 18 (2023)
https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.22
The value of experiments in futures and foresight science : a reply
Derbyshire James, Dhami Mandeep K, Belton Ian, Önkal Dilek
Futures & Foresight Science Vol 5 (2023)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.156
Maritime search and rescue in Nunavut, Canada : strengthening the system from the bottom up
Kikkert Peter, Belton Ian, Pedersen Calvin, Lackenbauer P Whitney, Pelot Ron, Quigley John
World Maritime Rescue Congress (WMRC) 2023, pp. PP.12 (2023)

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Professional Activities

"Human Digital Twin for Enhancing Occupational Health and Safety"
Organiser
24/6/2024
StrathWide 2024: The University of Strathclyde Researcher conference
Chair
23/4/2024
StrathWide 2023: The University of Strathclyde Researcher conference
Chair
28/4/2023

More professional activities

Projects

Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi
Belton, Ian (Co-investigator) Bolger, Fergus (Principal Investigator) Crawford, Megan Michelle (Co-investigator) Hamlin, Iain (Co-investigator) MacDonald, Alice (Co-investigator) Rowe, Gene (Principal Investigator) Sissons, Aileen (Co-investigator) Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney (Co-investigator) Vasilichi, Alexandrina (Co-investigator) Wright, George (Principal Investigator)
BARD was a 23-month project funded by the US Government Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) and formed part of the larger Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation – “CREATE” – program. In BARD, we designed and produced Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) to assist in the construction of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) as the underlying engines for the analysis of arguments and evidence. BARD thus allows analysts to build and test competing or complementary arguments, and to examine the impact of different pieces of evidence, in an intuitive environment. BARD makes use of the Delphi technique – an iterative survey method that minimizes negative effects of cognitive and social biases – to manage the interaction between users.

In addition to the Delphi Team based in Strathclyde, BARD also consisted of teams based in London (UCL and Birkbeck) – who are experts on the psychology of causal reasoning – and in Melbourne, Australia (Monash University) – who are expert in CBNs and software engineering.

IARPA - https://www.iarpa.gov/
CREATE - https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/create
01-Jan-2017 - 30-Jan-2018

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Contact

Dr Ian Belton
Lecturer
Management Science

Email: i.belton@strath.ac.uk
Tel: Unlisted