Dr Ian Belton
Lecturer
Management Science
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Publications
- Adapting scenario planning to create an expectation for surprises : going beyond probability and plausibility in risk assessment
- Derbyshire James, Dhami Mandeep, Belton Ian, Onkal Dilek, Aven Terje
- Risk Analysis (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70112
- Designing a Bayesian urgency assessment tool for search and rescue in the Canadian Arctic
- Peters Joshua, Quigley John, Rudman Archie, Belton Ian, Howick Susan, Kikkert Peter, Walls Lesley
- Proceedings of the 22nd ISCRAM Conference ISCRAM 2025 (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.59297/zgw11c50
- Risk modelling for remote communities : an Inuit-driven Bayesian network approach to enhance search and rescue operations in Arctic Canada
- Belton Ian, Quigley John, Rudman Archie, Kikkert Peter, Howick Susan, Walls Lesley
- Proceedings of the 22nd ISCRAM Conference ISCRAM 2025 (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.59297/bz4zhp86
- Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation
- Dhami Mandeep K, Belton Ian K, De Werd Peter, Hadzhieva Velichka, Wicke Lars
- Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications Vol 9 (2024)
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-024-00560-y
- The role of character-based personal mitigation in sentencing judgments
- Belton Ian K, Dhami Mandeep K
- Journal of Empirical Legal Studies Vol 21, pp. 208-239 (2024)
- https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12376
- The Nunavut-Nunavik Search and Rescue project (NSAR) : enhancing SAR operations in Arctic Canada
- Belton Ian, Quigley John
- Arctic Science Summit Week (2024)
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Professional Activities
- Bayesian Networks – From Problem Structuring to Probabilistic Decision Support
- Speaker
- 18/5/2025
- What do I Not Know? AI, Risk and Probation
- Participant
- 12/3/2025
- "Human Digital Twin for Enhancing Occupational Health and Safety"
- Organiser
- 24/6/2024
- StrathWide 2024: The University of Strathclyde Researcher conference
- Chair
- 23/4/2024
- StrathWide 2023: The University of Strathclyde Researcher conference
- Chair
- 28/4/2023
Projects
- Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi
- Belton, Ian (Co-investigator) Bolger, Fergus (Principal Investigator) Crawford, Megan Michelle (Co-investigator) Hamlin, Iain (Co-investigator) MacDonald, Alice (Co-investigator) Rowe, Gene (Principal Investigator) Sissons, Aileen (Co-investigator) Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney (Co-investigator) Vasilichi, Alexandrina (Co-investigator) Wright, George (Principal Investigator)
- BARD was a 23-month project funded by the US Government Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) and formed part of the larger Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation – “CREATE” – program. In BARD, we designed and produced Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) to assist in the construction of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) as the underlying engines for the analysis of arguments and evidence. BARD thus allows analysts to build and test competing or complementary arguments, and to examine the impact of different pieces of evidence, in an intuitive environment. BARD makes use of the Delphi technique – an iterative survey method that minimizes negative effects of cognitive and social biases – to manage the interaction between users.
In addition to the Delphi Team based in Strathclyde, BARD also consisted of teams based in London (UCL and Birkbeck) – who are experts on the psychology of causal reasoning – and in Melbourne, Australia (Monash University) – who are expert in CBNs and software engineering.
IARPA - https://www.iarpa.gov/
CREATE - https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/create - 01-Jan-2017 - 30-Jan-2018