Dr Ian Belton

Research Associate

Management Science

Personal statement

I am a former lawyer who recently completed a PhD in psychology at Middlesex University. My research focuses on the psychology of human decision-making. In particular, I examine decisions made in organisational/institutional contexts such as the legal, defence and security sectors. I also have an interest in techniques for structuring group judgment such as the Delphi method and scenario planning.


Criminal sentencing by preferred numbers
Dhami Mandeep K, Belton Ian K, Merrall Elizabeth, McGrath Andrew, Bird Sheila M
Journal of Empirical Legal Studies Vol 17, pp. 139-163 (2020)
The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis
Dhami Mandeep K, Belton Ian K, Mandel David R
Applied Cognitive Psychology Vol 33, pp. 1080-1090 (2019)
Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment : a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process
Belton Ian, MacDonald Alice, Wright George, Hamlin Iain
Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol 147, pp. 72-82 (2019)
Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis
Wicke Lars, Dhami Mandeep K, Önkal Dilek, Belton Ian K
International Journal of Forecasting (2019)

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Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi
Belton, Ian (Co-investigator) Bolger, Fergus (Principal Investigator) Crawford, Megan Michelle (Co-investigator) Hamlin, Iain (Co-investigator) MacDonald, Alice (Co-investigator) Rowe, Gene (Principal Investigator) Sissons, Aileen (Co-investigator) Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney (Co-investigator) Vasilichi, Alexandrina (Co-investigator) Wright, George (Principal Investigator)
BARD was a 23-month project funded by the US Government Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) and formed part of the larger Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation – “CREATE” – program. In BARD, we designed and produced Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) to assist in the construction of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) as the underlying engines for the analysis of arguments and evidence. BARD thus allows analysts to build and test competing or complementary arguments, and to examine the impact of different pieces of evidence, in an intuitive environment. BARD makes use of the Delphi technique – an iterative survey method that minimizes negative effects of cognitive and social biases – to manage the interaction between users.

In addition to the Delphi Team based in Strathclyde, BARD also consisted of teams based in London (UCL and Birkbeck) – who are experts on the psychology of causal reasoning – and in Melbourne, Australia (Monash University) – who are expert in CBNs and software engineering.

IARPA - https://www.iarpa.gov/
CREATE - https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/create
01-Jan-2017 - 30-Jan-2018

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