Dr Louise Kelly

Senior Lecturer

Mathematics and Statistics

Personal statement

I graduated from the University of Strathclyde in 1992 with BSc (Hons) degree in Mathematical Sciences. I then went on to do a PhD at Strathclyde, in Mathematics and Statistics. I was awarded my PhD in 1996 and my thesis was entitled: Listeria monocytogenes in Silage: A mathematical modelling approach. Following my PhD, I started my career as a Risk Assessor with the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA). The VLA was an Executive Agency of the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in the United Kingdom Government. It is now named the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). I am still employed with APHA on a part-time basis. During my time at VLA/APHA I have developed and managed many veterinary and public health risk assessment and mathematical modelling projects relating to, for example, bovine tuberculosis, bovine brucellosis, foot and mouth diseease, bluetongue, camplyobacter, salmonella and rabies. I have worked as an expert for the World Health Organisation, The food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, the European Food Safety Authority  and European Animal Health Office. I have also run numerous risk assessment courses in, for example, the United States, China, Thailand and Europe.


In 2001, I returned to the University of Strathclyde as a Lecturer in Statistics whilst maintaining my research links with VLA/APHA through a joint appointment. My research continues to mainly focus on animal and veterinary public health epidemiology and risk assessment although I am now also involved in research into Widening Access into Higher Education, particularly relating to school entry requirements.


The risk of infection by African swine fever virus in European swine through boar movement and legal trade of pigs and pig meat
Taylor Rachel A, Condoleo Roberto, Simons Robin R L, Gale Paul, Kelly Louise A, Snary Emma L
Frontiers in Veterinary Science Vol 6 (2020)
A qualitative risk assessment of cleansing and disinfection requirements after an avian influenza outbreak in commercial poultry
Horigan V, Gale P, Adkin A, Brown I, Clark J, Kelly L
British Poultry Science Vol 60, pp. 691-699 (2019)
A generic framework for spatial quantitative risk assessments of infectious diseases : lumpy skin disease case study
Taylor Rachel A, Berriman Alexander DC, Gale Paul, Kelly Louise A, Snary Emma L
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Vol 66, pp. 131-143 (2019)
Estimating the impact on food and edible materials of changing scrapie control measures : the scrapie control model
Adkin Amie, Horigan Verity, Rajanayagam Brenda, Arnold Mark, Konold Timm, Spiropoulos John, Kelly Louise
Preventive Veterinary Medicine Vol 158, pp. 51-64 (2018)
Qualitative import risk assessment : a proposed method for estimating the aggregated probability of entry of infection
Kelly L, Kosmider R, Gale P, Snary E L
Microbial Risk Analysis Vol 9, pp. 33-37 (2018)
Assessing the probability of introduction and transmission of lumpy skin disease virus within the United Kingdom
Horigan V, Beard PM, Roberts H, Adkin A, Gale P, Batten CA, Kelly L
Microbial Risk Analysis Vol 9, pp. 1-10 (2018)

more publications

Professional activities

Day of Science at Strathclyde
Royal Veterinary College University of London
Visiting researcher
Royal Veterinary College University of London
Visiting researcher
Infectious Diseases Workshops – Raising Attainment in Numeracy, STEM Outreach
Royal Veterinary College, England
Visiting lecturer

more professional activities


Experimental design for the study of anthelmintic resistance in UK cattle populations
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator)
30-Jan-2014 - 31-Jan-2018
EPSRC Doctoral Training Grant - DTA, University of Strathclyde | Love, Johnathan
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator) Robertson, Chris (Co-investigator) Love, Johnathan (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2014 - 01-Jan-2018
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator) Speirs, Douglas (Co-investigator) Gardiner, Ian (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2012 - 07-Jan-2016
Doctoral Training Grant 2010 | Ross, David
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator) Young, David (Co-investigator) Ross, David (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2010 - 25-Jan-2016
Data Mining for Exotic Pathogen Spread - DTA PhD with VLA
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator)
01-Jan-2010 - 31-Jan-2014
An Evidence Base for New Legislation and Guidance for Implementation of a Compulsory Treatment ...
Kelly, Louise (Principal Investigator)
01-Jan-2007 - 18-Jan-2007

more projects


Mathematics and Statistics
Livingstone Tower

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