Professor John Quigley
Management Science
Personal statement
A common thread throughout my research is risk modeling, where I develop models to support decision-making under uncertainty. My work integrates data analysis and expert judgment, often applied in the design and maintenance of complex sociotechnical systems. I collaborate across disciplines and industries to create decision-support tools that enhance operational efficiency, resilience, and sustainability.
My research spans diverse application areas, including:
- Large-scale manufacturing processes
- Offshore wind farm maintenance
- Search and rescue (SAR) operations supporting Inuit communities
Selected Projects
NNSAR:
Funded by NERC and Canada’s National Research Council (NRC), this project strengthens the whole-of-society SAR system in Nunavut and Nunavik. We focus on capacity building, skills development, and the creation of a decision-support model for SAR planning, infrastructure development, and emergency response.
Productivity and Sustainability Management in the Responsive Factory
This EPSRC-funded initiative leverages real-time manufacturing data to optimize operations, improve efficiency and sustainability, and apply probabilistic networks for decision support. Collaborators include researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Napier, as well as the National Manufacturing Institute of Scotland. Further information is available here. For a full list of the groups publications in the Next Generation Tools for Design and Manufacture, visit our Google Scholar profile
NEXUS
A Horizon 2020 initiative focused on vessel design for offshore windfarm maintenance. This project developed models linking vessel characteristics with windfarm productivity, guiding optimal vessel designs. Partners included academics from Management Science and Naval, Ocean, and Marine Engineering, as well as industry leaders such as Kongsberg, Gondan, Global Marine, DNV, Sintef, and Arttic.
PCAD
An EPSRC-funded project aimed at enhancing engineering design productivity through predictive Computer-Aided Design (CAD). We developed algorithms and statistical methods to support decision-making in engineering design. This is a collaborative project with academics from Design, Manufacturing, and Engineering Management. More details can be found here.
Industry Collaboration
I am committed to industry engagement, having led consultancy and applied research projects with organizations such as:
- Aero-Engine Controls, Rolls-Royce, IrvingGQ, BAE Systems, and the Ministry of Defence (MOD) (defense sector)
- Scottish Power and SSE (energy utilities)
- Scottish Water (KTP), Forth Road Bridge (infrastructure risk assessment)
- Railway Safety and Standards Board (risk of train derailments)
I have also collaborated with the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) on expert judgment elicitation and quantification of uncertainty, and led the COST Working Group on elicitation processes, culminating in the publication of Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement.
Academic & Professional Background
- Chartered Statistician, Royal Statistical Society (CStat)
- Formerly qualified as an Associate of the Society of Actuaries (ASA)
- Bachelor of Mathematics in Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Canada (BMath)
- PhD in Management Science, University of Strathclyde
- Vice Dean (Research), Strathclyde Business School (2021-present)
- Former Associate Dean (Research), Strathclyde Business School (2020-2021)
- Former Head of Department, Management Science (2016-2019)
Prize And Awards
- FAIM 2025 Sullivan Best Paper Award
- Recipient
- 23/6/2025
- KTP Award with Scottish Water
- Recipient
- 2010
- Oustanding Paper Prize IEEE Engineering Management Conference, Singapore - joint work with Alstom Power, Switzerland
- Recipient
- 2008
Publications
- A simulation study of topic model performance under varying corpus conditions
- Medeiros Cynthia, Quigley John, Revie Matthew
- BaYSM - Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (2026)
- A case study integrating scenario thinking with dialysis policymaking in Thailand
- Botwright Siobhan, Yongphiphatwong Natcha, Teerawattananon Yot, Sutawong Jiratorn, Chavarina Kinanti Khansa, Chuanchaiyakul Tanainan, Quigley John, Megiddo Itamar, Colson Abigail
- Communications Medicine Vol 6 (2026)
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-01299-3
- A decision support model for efficient garment reprocessing for a sustainable circular business model
- Patel Hariketan, Vasantha Gokula, Corney Jonathan, Quigley John, El Raoui Hanane, Sales Rachel, Cusack Micheal, Burns Anthony, Rough Andrew
- The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-025-17164-5
- A decision support model for efficient garment reprocessing for a sustainable circular business model
- Patel Hariketan, Vasantha Gokula, Corney Jonathan, Quigley John, El Raoui Hanane, Sales Rachel, Cusak Micheal, Burns Anthony, Rough Andrew
- The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-025-17164-5
- Balancing patient choice and health system capacity : a system dynamics model of dialysis in Thailand
- Botwright Siobhan, Teerawattananon Yot, Phannajit Jeerath, Sutawong Jiratorn, Yongphiphatwong Natcha, Chavarina Kinanti Khansa, Quigley John, Megiddo Itamar, Nguyen Le Khanh Ngan
- BMC Medicine Vol 23 (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-04522-z
- Analysing spatio-temporal worker movement patterns : implications for safety and productivity in smart factories
- Vasantha Gokula, Patel Hariketan, Hanson Jack, Corney Jonathon, El-Raoui Hanane, Sales Rachel, Quigley John, Kasarapu Satya Saravan, Sherlock Andrew
- IFAC-PapersOnLine Vol 59, pp. 1814-1819 (2025)
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2025.09.305
Teaching
John provides specialist teaching for a number of programmes at various levels. These have included teaching Management Science at all levels of undergraduate and postgraduate as well as Executive Education. John has taught in 10 different international centres across Europe, the Middle East and South East Asia, as well as Executive Education in Canada.
John is committed to making effective use of technology to support teaching and learning. He has been involved in managing, developing and teaching on pedagogically successful online and distance courses, as well as investigating the effectiveness of using virtual reality environments to support teaching.
Professional Activities
- Bayesian Networks – From Problem Structuring to Probabilistic Decision Support
- Speaker
- 18/5/2025
- ISCRAM 2025
- Participant
- 18/5/2025
- CABS REF 2028 Symposium: Navigating a changing research assessment exercise
- Recipient
- 1/2/2024
- Scientific methods for integrating expert knowledge in Bayesian models
- Examiner
- 23/1/2024
- ICADE Comillas (External organisation)
- Advisor
- 24/10/2023
- Why information on uncertainty is useful, and how it can help risk management and decision-making
- Speaker
- 22/11/2021
Projects
- (3.9k) Refining the methodology for collecting data on the effects of climate change on sleep and mental health in care homes
- Crawford, Megan (Principal Investigator) Tse, Dwight (Principal Investigator) Witte, Kimia (Co-investigator) Dragojlovic-Oliveira, Sonja (Co-investigator) McGill, Grainne (Co-investigator) Quigley, John (Co-investigator) White, Chris (Co-investigator)
- 05-Jan-2026 - 31-Jan-2026
- RSSB - SRM Adaptation
- Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Bedford, Tim (Co-investigator) Revie, Matthew (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator)
- 02-Jan-2025 - 31-Jan-2025
- Strengthening search and rescue in Arctic Canada and Scotland with data collection, analysis and modelling tools
- Belton, Ian (Principal Investigator) Rudman, Archie John (Researcher) Quigley, John (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator) Howick, Susan (Co-investigator)
- The NNSAR project was focused on enhancing the Search and Rescue (SAR) system in the Canadian Arctic regions of Nunavut and Nunavik, where SAR responders – mostly volunteers – provide 24/7 response capabilities in challenging conditions with limited resources. Their services are essential for community safety and well-being. The NNSAR team has developed a novel quantitative risk model to support decision-making around the strategic allocation of resources for SAR operations.
To improve the management of SAR operations, and to maximise the impact of the NNSAR model, we have identified a need for more and better SAR data. At present, Emergency Management Organizations (EMOs) must allocate resources and seek government funding based on limited and/or anecdotal evidence only. This impact project plans to address the identified data gap in two ways.
First, we will work with Kativik Civil Security (KCS), the Nunavik EMO, to develop a rigorous process for the collection, analysis and reporting of SAR data. Those data will allow KCS to make evidence-based policy decisions to better support SAR in Nunavik and enable us to develop the NNSAR model into one with broad applicability across diverse SAR environments.
Second, we aim to extend the reach of our impact to Scotland. As in Nunavik, Scottish mountain rescue relies on a committed group of volunteers operating in a challenging environment. The two SAR systems share many features, notably growing caseloads that are increasing the strain on responders and the system as a whole. The data available in Scotland are much more detailed than in Nunavik but are currently underutilised. We will form a new partnership with Mountaineering Scotland to:
1. Apply the NNSAR model to existing Scottish mountain rescue data – this can both improve the model and provide useful insights for Scotland, which will translate back to Canada; and
2. Apply learning from the novel Nunavik SAR data collection process to enhance data collection within Scotland.
The outcomes of this project will include enhanced SAR in Nunavik and Scotland, stronger relationships with external partners, and the construction of a risk model with wide application to emergency management operations across the world. - 02-Jan-2025 - 31-Jan-2025
- COst Forecasting Framework with Expert and Analogous Data (COFFEAD)
- Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Liu, Bin (Co-investigator) Revie, Matthew (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator)
- 15-Jan-2024 - 15-Jan-2026
- The Role of Hydrogen in the Decarbonisation of the Steel Industry
- Steward, Elise (Principal Investigator) Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Roberts, Jen (Principal Investigator) Sherlock, Andrew (Principal Investigator)
- This is an interdisciplinary and international research project in collaboration with the University of Waterloo, Canada, which aims to identify the key gaps, barriers and priorities for further research regarding the role of hydrogen in the decarbonising the steel industry, upstream and downstream in the UK and Ontario. The National Manufacturing Institute of Scotland (NMIS) has formed a conglomerate of industrial partners from the UK forging industry and furnace companies to develop hydrogen powered furnace technology for the forging process. This project will supplement their study by evaluating the decision problem from the perspective of the industrialist. Interviews will be conducted with key businesses and stakeholders across the steel industries of the UK and Ontario, to acquire a deep understanding of the barriers, enablers, consequences and uncertainties of industrial processes and hydrogen adoption, thus ultimately informing the development of a novel decision-making framework to assist the sustainable transition of the industry.
This project will add substantial value to the existing knowledge of hydrogen implementation since barriers will be recognised and potential solutions provided. A report will also be produced which will comprise a review of existing processes, potential opportunities for decarbonisation across both production and processing, discussion of the issue from an industry-wide perspective (including consideration of carbon emissions and ‘net-zero’ objectives, carbon taxes, government policy, and hydrogen colour classification), modelling (hydrogen production and storage, transportation and utilisation), prospective risks and rewards (hydrogen embrittlement, costs, technology replacement), and a decision analysis.
Supervisors include: Prof John Quigley, Management Science; Dr Jen Roberts, Civil & Environmental Engineering; and Dr Andrew Sherlock, NMIS. - 01-Jan-2022 - 01-Jan-2023
- Nunavut Search and Rescue (NSAR) Project: Supporting Inuit Health and Well-Being, Food Security, Economic Development, and Community Resilience
- Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Howick, Susan (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator) Wright, George (Co-investigator)
- 06-Jan-2022 - 05-Jan-2025