Professor Lesley Walls

Management Science

Contact

Personal statement

My research involves the creation and evaluation of models to support risk-informed decisions taken under uncertainty, particularly for decisions related to the introduction of innovative technologies and engineering systems within socio-technical contexts. I am a Chartered Statistician and a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society.

My research output includes novel methodologies created in response to challenging operational decision problems arising in different domains, including Maritime, Energy, Aerospace, Defence, Manufacturing and Financial Services. The methodologies developed encompass stochastic models, statistical methods and elicitation processes for problem and model structuring as well as probability assessment of model parameters. The projects underpinning my research – both basic and applied – have been funded by UK research agencies (EPSRC, NERC), the European Commission (H2020), the Royal Society, Innovate UK and industrial sponsors.

I am committed to making an impact through my research and knowledge exchange. I received a 1906 Award from the International Electrotechnical Commission in recognition of exceptional achievement and contribution to standardisation for dependability methods. I have successfully engaged in multiple industry-driven projects (including Knowledge Transfer Partnerships), outreach events and consultancies for a range of organisations. I have created and delivered educational learning material for post-experience, post-graduate and undergraduate programmes on topics including management science, stochastic processes, risk analysis, statistical modelling, decision analysis and operational research.

 

Back to staff profile

Publications

Risk modelling for remote communities : an Inuit-driven Bayesian network approach to enhance search and rescue operations in Arctic Canada
Belton Ian, Quigley John, Rudman Archie, Kikkert Peter, Howick Susan, Walls Lesley
Proceedings of the 22nd ISCRAM Conference ISCRAM 2025 (2025)
https://doi.org/10.59297/bz4zhp86
Designing a Bayesian urgency assessment tool for search and rescue in the Canadian Arctic
Peters Joshua, Quigley John, Rudman Archie, Belton Ian, Howick Susan, Kikkert Peter, Walls Lesley
Proceedings of the 22nd ISCRAM Conference ISCRAM 2025 (2025)
https://doi.org/10.59297/zgw11c50
Addressing the challenges to search and rescue operations caused by ice conditions in Nunavut, Canada
Kikkert Peter, Quigley John, Belton Ian, Brown Robert, Ennis Kerri-Ann, Goerlandt Floris, Howick Susan, Lackenbauer P Whitney, Mak Lawrence, Pedersen Calvin, Pelot Ronald, Shan Desai, Walls Lesley, Wright George
27th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (2023)
Data augmentation to improve the performance of ensemble learning for system failure prediction with limited observations
Shi Guo, Liu Bin, Walls Lesley
2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS) 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety: Reliability and Safety of Intelligent Systems, ICRMS 2022, pp. 296-300 (2022)
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944577
A data driven approach to elicit causal links between performance shaping factors and human failure events
Johnson Karl, Morais Caroline, Patelli Edoardo, Walls Lesley
Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022) European Safety and Reliability Conference, pp. 520-527 (2022)
https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5183-4_R12-12-372-cd
Modelling epistemic uncertainty in offshore wind farm production capacity to reduce risk
Zitrou Athena, Bedford Tim, Walls Lesley
Risk Analysis Vol 42, pp. 1524-1540 (2022)
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13846

More publications

Back to staff profile

Professional Activities

What do I Not Know? AI, Risk and Probation
Participant
12/3/2025
Justice Leaders Workshop: AI and Risk Decision-Making
Member of programme committee
1/11/2024
European Safety and Reliability Conference ESREL 2016
Chair
2016
European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
Keynote/plenary speaker
2013
International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) (External organisation)
Member
2013
International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability
Keynote/plenary speaker
2011

More professional activities

Projects

Multi-layer Predictive Control of Iron Salt Dosing for Sustainable Wastewater Treatment (International Exchanges 2025 Cost Share NSFC)
Liu, Bin (Principal Investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2026 - 31-Jan-2027
RSSB - SRM Adaptation
Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Bedford, Tim (Co-investigator) Revie, Matthew (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator)
02-Jan-2025 - 31-Jan-2025
Strengthening search and rescue in Arctic Canada and Scotland with data collection, analysis and modelling tools
Belton, Ian (Principal Investigator) Rudman, Archie John (Researcher) Quigley, John (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator) Howick, Susan (Co-investigator)
The NNSAR project was focused on enhancing the Search and Rescue (SAR) system in the Canadian Arctic regions of Nunavut and Nunavik, where SAR responders – mostly volunteers – provide 24/7 response capabilities in challenging conditions with limited resources. Their services are essential for community safety and well-being. The NNSAR team has developed a novel quantitative risk model to support decision-making around the strategic allocation of resources for SAR operations.

To improve the management of SAR operations, and to maximise the impact of the NNSAR model, we have identified a need for more and better SAR data. At present, Emergency Management Organizations (EMOs) must allocate resources and seek government funding based on limited and/or anecdotal evidence only. This impact project plans to address the identified data gap in two ways.
First, we will work with Kativik Civil Security (KCS), the Nunavik EMO, to develop a rigorous process for the collection, analysis and reporting of SAR data. Those data will allow KCS to make evidence-based policy decisions to better support SAR in Nunavik and enable us to develop the NNSAR model into one with broad applicability across diverse SAR environments.

Second, we aim to extend the reach of our impact to Scotland. As in Nunavik, Scottish mountain rescue relies on a committed group of volunteers operating in a challenging environment. The two SAR systems share many features, notably growing caseloads that are increasing the strain on responders and the system as a whole. The data available in Scotland are much more detailed than in Nunavik but are currently underutilised. We will form a new partnership with Mountaineering Scotland to:
1. Apply the NNSAR model to existing Scottish mountain rescue data – this can both improve the model and provide useful insights for Scotland, which will translate back to Canada; and

2. Apply learning from the novel Nunavik SAR data collection process to enhance data collection within Scotland.

The outcomes of this project will include enhanced SAR in Nunavik and Scotland, stronger relationships with external partners, and the construction of a risk model with wide application to emergency management operations across the world.
02-Jan-2025 - 31-Jan-2025
Resilient Digitalising Infrastructure (ReDI) SCDT
Walls, Lesley (Principal Investigator) Patelli, Edoardo (Co-investigator) White, Chris (Co-investigator) Irvine, James (Co-investigator) Strens, Fiona (Co-investigator) Anderson, Heather (Administrator)
The ReDI (Resilience in Digitalising Infrastructure) SCDT aims to produce ‘new resilience thinkers’ – not just in the graduates we deliver but also in the building of a whole community including staff from partner and stakeholder organisations and academics working in relevant fields.
ReDI will innovate in how the doctoral-level studentships are delivered, aligning ambitions between industry and academics, borrowing from the cohort approach proposed in the original EPSRC CDT and making the most of the freedoms implicit in an independently funding model. Our Industry partners and co-funders are keen to support this programme which aligns with their ambitions, including:
•Partners should together shape high level ‘challenge themes’ to reflect real world context;
•The themes should drive a co-creation process for PhD project definition involving partners, academics and students;
•‘Resilience Foundations’ training upfront should provide students with a shared, baseline understanding of key risk and resilience topics;
•Partners should be engaged with the whole student cohort (although individual students may be industry co-supervised and take on placements);
•A programme of activities should be supported to bring together partner staff with academics, students and other stakeholders to develop shared knowledge and build a community.

Financial summary:

University SCDT funds: £180,000
External funds: £490,000 (Strathclyde share of £980,000 from industry & NPL)
Total Strathclyde project value: £670,000
01-Jan-2025 - 30-Jan-2028
ReMake Value Retention Centre
Fitzpatrick, Stephen (Principal Investigator) MacBryde, Jillian (Co-investigator) MacLeod, Charles Norman (Co-investigator) Pierce, Gareth (Co-investigator) Revie, Matthew (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator) Wynne, Bradley (Co-investigator) Hernandez, Jose Luis (Research Co-investigator) Liu, Zhe (Research Co-investigator) Reimer, Andreas (Research Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2024 - 30-Jan-2028
COst Forecasting Framework with Expert and Analogous Data (COFFEAD)
Quigley, John (Principal Investigator) Liu, Bin (Co-investigator) Revie, Matthew (Co-investigator) Walls, Lesley (Co-investigator)
15-Jan-2024 - 15-Jan-2026

More projects

Back to staff profile

Contact

Professor Lesley Walls
Management Science

Email: lesley.walls@strath.ac.uk
Tel: 548 3616