Fraser of Allander Institute

Department of Economics Fraser of Allander Institute

Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

Founded in 1975, the Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary is the leading publication on the Scottish economy and offers authoritative and independent analysis of the key issues of the day.

The Commentary provides in-depth analysis of the current performance and future prospects of the Scottish economy, including short- and medium-term forecasts for economic growth and the labour market.

The Commentary also provides a platform for the dissemination of high quality research on issues facing the Scottish economy. It publishes articles from leading experts in academia, industry, policy and the third sector.

The Economic Perspectives and Policy sections of the Commentary contains accessible, policy-relevant research and commentary on the Scottish economy and wider economic and public policy issues.

Latest Fraser of Allander Commentary

December 2018: volume 42, number 4

 

A smooth Brexit transition crucial for Scotland’s economy

The Scottish economic growth in 2018 is on track to be at its highest rate since 2014, according to the latest economic commentary.  The Institute predicts growth of 1.4% in 2019, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021 – presuming the UK secures smooth transition from the EU.

A disorderly Brexit remains the biggest threat to Scottish jobs and growth.  The Bank of England have set out a ‘worst-case’ scenario which could see the UK economy shrink by around 8% from 2019.

To put that in context, this would be around double the size of the recession Scotland witnessed during the financial crisis, and would be equivalent to an extra 100,000 people unemployed in Scotland.

 

Economic Perspective articles:

 

Back issues

September 2018: Volume 42, number 3
 

 

Upturn in Scottish economic growth but a smooth Brexit transition is vital to avoid derailing progress

Securing a smooth Brexit transition is 'vital' to protect Scotland's growing economy – even if that means extending the Article 50 negotiation period.
In the latest Economic Commentary,  Scottish GDP grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2018. This is in line with its prediction of a more optimistic outlook for 2018 and is the second quarter in a row Scotland has outpaced UK growth.
Despite these positive figures we emphasize the continuing fragility of the Scottish economy and stress the importance to the UK economy of securing an orderly transition upon leaving the EU in March 2019 to avoid potentially damaging disruption to business.

Economic Perspective individual sections:

Monetary and fiscal policy in a newly independent Scotland 

Highlighting the need for policy coordination 

Reappraising Scotland’s exports and their geographies 

March 2018: Volume 42, number 2
 

 

Economic Perspective articles:

FAI Perspectives - Could a reduction in alcohol consumption be a good thing?

FAI Perspectives - Performance of high growth firms in Scotland

FAI Perspectives - The Output Gap

March 2018: Volume 42, number 1
 

Economic Perspective individual sections:

December 2017: Volume 41, number 4
 

Economic Perspective individual sections:

September 2017: Volume 41, number 3

Individual sections of the Commentary

June 2017: Volume 41, number 2
 

March 2017: Volume 41, number 1 December 2016: Volume 40, number 3
 

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Individual sections of the Commentary

July 2016: Volume 41, number 2 June 2016: Volume 40, number 1
 

Download the transcript for this video.

 

March 2016: Volume 39, number 3
 

November 2015: Volume 39, number 2
 

June 2015: Volume 39, number 1
 

March 2015: Volume 38, number 3
 

November 2014: Volume 38, number 2 June 2014: Volume 38, number 1 March 2014: Volume 37, number 3
 

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Strathclyde Business School
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