News | Paulina Gonzalez-Martinez | Oct 2026
Large-scale investment in clean energy is central to the transition to net zero. But how many new jobs will it actually create, and what determines the wider economic benefits?
New timely research co-authored by Centre for Energy Policy Emeritus Professor Kim Swales, alongside Dr Andrew Ross (Forschungszentrum Jülich) and Professor Patrizio Lecca (Universidad Pontificia Comillas), offers important insights for policymakers.
Published in Energy Research & Social Science, the paper uses Germany’s energy transition to show how assumptions about wage-setting and labour market responses can fundamentally change projections of employment and economic growth.
Its central finding is that commonly used modelling assumptions can substantially overstate the employment gains from green investment. When more realistic wage responses are included, the projected jobs dividend is considerably smaller.
Why does this matter for policy?
- Green investment does not automatically translate into large net employment gains.
- Wage pressures and wider labour market conditions shape how the benefits of investment materialise.
- Active workforce planning, skills development and targeted policy support will therefore be important in securing them.
Although the modelling focuses on Germany, the findings carry wider lessons for Scotland, the UK and internationally. They also reinforce a central theme across CEP’s research: realising the economic benefits of net zero requires understanding how investment interacts with labour markets and wider economic conditions.
Read the full research paper in Energy Research & Social Science.
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