Postgraduate research opportunities Central Banks' Inflation Gamble: Good Luck versus Good Models
ApplyKey facts
- Opens: Monday 27 January 2025
- Deadline: Monday 31 March 2025
- Number of places: 1
- Duration: 36 months
- Funding: Home fee, International fee, Stipend
Overview
This project outlines an innovative research agenda that develops advanced Bayesian machine learning techniques for modelling granular inflation series using “big data”. These techniques are well-suited for uncovering more complex patterns and identifying drivers of inflation and its subcomponents.Eligibility
To be considered for this PhD position, applicants must have obtained an excellent Master’s degree in Economics or related quantitative fields (e.g., Statistics, Data Science, Quantitative Finance, etc.). A strong interest in and significant knowledge of time series econometrics, excellent analytical skills, proficiency in statistical software programming (preferably R or Matlab), and a curiosity in exploring new Bayesian machine and statistical learning techniques are essential.
The successful candidate will be expected to conduct both independent and collaborative research, contribute to developing and improving research and econometric methods, and develop their own objectives and proposals, all under the guidance of the supervisory team (Dr Hauzenberger, Professor Koop, and Professor McIntyre). Excellent communication skills (both written and verbal) are essential to present econometric output and complex information (e.g., in the form of econometric or machine learning output) in an accessible way to both experts and non-specialists. When reviewing the application materials, we will particularly value evidence of your ability to conduct independent research, as demonstrated by a quantitative analysis or an econometric project (preferably in macroeconomics or finance) undertaken during your studies.
Strathclyde Business School is committed to supporting a diverse and inclusive postgraduate research population. We make decisions on entry by assessing the whole person and not relying solely on academic achievements. On that basis, please ensure that your application (via your CV and covering letter) can evidence your resourcefulness, commitment and resilience as demonstrated by broader professional and life experiences. This evidence should be centred on your ability to undertake and complete a PhD and contribute to a positive PhD community.
If English isn't your first language, you'll need an IELTS score of 6.5 or equivalent with no individual element below 5.5.

Project Details
Start date: 1 October 2025
The recent surge in inflation following the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war has not been seen for decades. However, to the surprise of even hawkish central bankers, inflation has recently stabilised around the central banks' 2% inflation target across the globe. These swift fluctuations in inflation in either direction force econometricians and policymakers to rethink their workhorse inflation modelling techniques, as such highly nonlinear dynamics cannot be adequately captured by conventional linear models.
This project sets forth an innovative research agenda involving the development and application of advanced Bayesian machine learning techniques for modelling and forecasting inflation. The proposed applications will utilise “big data” and involve data that is more granular than what is typically used. Here, “more granular” refers to the aim of directly modelling inflation subcomponents (rather than just the aggregate), while “big data” entails using many macroeconomic covariates.
Machine learning techniques are well-suited for such applications, and with increasingly granular data available, new avenues emerge to produce more accurate forecasts, uncover more complex patterns in inflation, and identify causes/drivers of inflation.
With globalisation and increasingly complex supply chains, understanding how economic shocks propagate through the global economy is essential in informing policy decisions.
Further information
This research project provides the foundation for the development of excellent career opportunities in academia, government or industry. It also offers a PhD student a pathway into internationally recognised, world-leading research in a stimulating environment through the macroeconomic modelling cluster in the Department of Economics at Strathclyde.
Funding details
Fully-funded scholarship for 3 years covers all university tuition fees (at UK level) and an annual tax-free stipend. International students are also eligible to apply, but they will need to find other funding sources to cover the difference between the home and international tuition fees. Exceptional international candidates may be provided funding for this difference.
While there is no funding in place for opportunities marked "unfunded", there are lots of different options to help you fund postgraduate research. Visit funding your postgraduate research for links to government grants, research councils funding and more, that could be available.
Apply
Your application must include:
- An updated curriculum vitae
- Details of two academic referees, including email addresses
- Degree certificate(s) and academic transcript(s), which must be certified copies
- Evidence of a quantitative analysis or an econometric project (preferably in macroeconomics or finance) undertaken during your studies
Number of places: 1
There will be a shortlisting and interview process.
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Economics
Programme: Economics
Contact us
Enquiries about the project can be directed to Niko Hauzenberger (niko.hauzenberger@strath.ac.uk).