Overview

Trade agreements shape the UK economy, but their effects vary by region. This project helps government economists understand the effects of national trade policies in different UK regions. By developing practical tools and guidance, we support fairer, more informed trade policy decisions that better support communities across the UK.

The challenge

Most traditional economic models look at trade impacts at the national level. While useful, this approach can hide important local differences. A trade deal that boosts the UK economy overall might still create challenges for specific regions or industries. Policymakers increasingly need clearer insights into these uneven effects so they can avoid unintended consequences and design more balanced strategies.

What we did

Working with the ESRC‑funded Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy, and with economists in the Department for Business and Trade, and the Scottish Government, we developed a practical method to model trade impacts at the regional level.

We produced a user‑friendly guide to the model, A Trade Model of Selected Territories (ATMOS), making the approach transparent and accessible. We organised a policy workshop bringing together economists from across the UK to test the model with real‑world scenarios, gather feedback, and refine usability.

Impact

Key impacts include:

• Improved tools for understanding regional impacts of trade policy.
• Greater awareness of how national decisions affect local economies.
• Enhanced capacity within government to conduct evidence-based analysis.
• Foundations for more targeted, inclusive trade and economic strategies.

Building on this success, follow-on funding will support hands-on work with the Department for Business and Trade to embed the model into real policy workflows. This includes adapting it to existing systems, refining data, and testing it in live policy scenarios.

In the longer term, wider adoption across the UK and devolved governments could strengthen regional analysis and support more transparent, geographically sensitive economic decision-making.